Sorry about the late reply but it's been a busy day at work. Had a good day and saw lot's of our elderly citizens out showing the ANZAC spirit and courage by not letting a virus limit their freedom.
I do take you point on "error of judgement" and cannot believe I'm even posting on the Political forum. It's just my inherent optimism that my differing opinion in support of my kids future may reach a few real journo's out there who may take an interest in what is happening to our society and dig a little deeper on the social and economic impact the shutdowns are delivering. I would love to see a constructive debate on TV. Who would have thought a month ago you would have people fighting over a roll of dunny paper, your local pub and coffeee shop closed, Qantas laying off staff and tonight a bulldozer blocking a Virgin Jet?
As for a scientific response to Prof. Bhakdi’s open letter, I doubt many scientists are game enough to voice an alternate opinion due to the risk of being publically humiliated by our one-eyed media. But if you do a lot of research more people are scientists are starting to ask questions, just not that many on HC but that's probably due to the age demographic. My posts are not to scare them but if you read my stats, it's the exact opposite. It's to reassure our healthy older citizens. I'm no spring chicken myself.
It was interesting that the Covid-19 numbers I have been posting on infection rates and deaths not adding up to the media hype are also touched on by the Professor.
After talking to some doctors and nurses over the past 3 weeks our ICU's never filled up as they expected due to infections prior to lockdown, which is a good thing but it does ask the questions was wrecking our economy necessary? Interestingly our hospitals are currently very quiet and empty and even a hospital chef told me he was not that busy. Must be a lot of hypochondriacs out there or lot of very sick people locking themselves inside, too bloody scared to see a doctor.
Before the usual mob start posting and saying Scomo's shutdowns saved us, facts are the incubation period can be very anything from 2 days to 28 days. Fact is COVID-19 is very contagious. Now shutdown never occurred until the 23rd of March, so given all the travel in and out of China since January it's a fair assumption COVID-19 has been in our community for several months and stories coming out of China may suggest it may be a lot longer.
Given the incubation period maybe between 2 days and up to 28 days, as we never closed down until the 23rd of March, many COVID-19 infected people were still walking around up until the 6th April with an incubation period of 14 days. Severe symptoms for those worst affected in this group would not have shown up in this group until around the 8th April. Now the ICU beds just didn't fill up and it wasn't due to the shutdown as they lead us believe. A 5 day incubation period would have seen the ICU beds full in the 1st week of April.
The only logical answers are that COVID-19 is not that contagious or it is not that deadly and many of us have already had COVID-19. We just never knew we had it. Well we know how far it spread as Prince Charles tested positive a long way from Wuhan in the UK on the 25th March. Good news (For hairy and Tony) is that he breezed through it at the tender age of 71. Charlie looks pretty healthy for his age, does not smoke, no cancer, not overweight so his probability of dying from COVID-19 was very low. Live a healthy life and live a long time, nothing new there.
So:
Scomo's shutdown has not saved you.
He did not stop the planes
He did not stop the boats
He did not stop the Ruby Princess disembarking
He did stop the Economy and now many old people are beginning to die of loneliness in isolation and many young people are dying from suicide
For him to Stop this waste of life he must start the economy immediately at full throttle. The chances of this happening are lower than dying of Covid which is 0.000712 % in Australia, as I've never heard a politician say the got it wrong. It's not actions that count, it's votes.
And finally, unfortunately, he will not stop the virus getting to you
It's airborne and you will be coughed on at some time or your food delivery will be contaminated. It could be the door handle you grab or the grandchild that gives you a hug. Good news is if your older and healthy you will go on for many years to come. Just don't be scared of living, we all have to die at some time.
"The incubation period (time from exposure to the development of symptoms) of the virus is estimated to be between 2 and 14 days based on the following sources:
The World Health Organization (WHO) reported an incubation period for COVID-19 between 2 and 10 days. [1]
China’s National Health Commission (NHC) had initially estimated an incubation period from 10 to 14 days[2].
The United States' CDC estimates the incubation period for COVID-19 to be between 2 and 14 days[3].
DXY.cn, a leading Chinese online community for physicians and health care professionals, is reporting an incubation period of "3 to 7 days, up to 14 days".
The estimated range will be most likely narrowed down as more data becomes available. Incubation period of up to 24 days?
The incubation period has been found to be as long as 24 days (range: 0-24 days; median: 3.0 days) in a study published on February 9. [11]
The WHO said in a press conference on February 10 that:
a very long incubation period could reflect a double exposure.
24 days represented an outlier observation that must be taken into consideration in the context of the main finding of the study.
WHO is not considering changing recommendations regarding incubation periods.
More recently, however, a case with an incubation period of 19 days was observed in a JAMA study published on Feb. 21. [13], and another case with an incubation period of 27 days was reported by Hubei Province on Feb. 22 [12]"
