Hope all are having a good weekend - nice to see some more positive news directly from NMR last week!
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I believe the Takatokwane scoping study is very much on track for completion as stated by NMR - if not complete already.
However I also think it has been indicated by NMR, that there are FOUR STAGES in regards to the initial scoping study.
Perhaps this is why there is a little confusion as to the dates!?
Am sure many know the story - but have taken the time to write up the speel for those newer to the NMR game.
My reasoning / research on the FOUR SCOPING STUDY STAGES below.
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STAGE 1) PRELIMINARY SCOPING STUDY - TO ALLOW NMR RESEARCH AND EVALUATION / PLANNING TO PROGRESS
Nimrodel have said they would be getting early data from "Nightingale" - to allow for forward planning. They don't have to wait for ASX news like we do. They are planning a coal mine - while we are planning SP movements!!!
1a) From NMR directly, 24th October 2011 -
"It is intended that preliminary feedback will be available in late November, coinciding with the Botswana Coal and Energy Conference in Gaborone"
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STAGE 2) ACTUAL COMPLETION of the SCOPING STUDY (JANUARY).
...by "Nightingale Africa Partnership", for review by Nimrodel directors and associates. Actual completion may very well be complete (given NMR track record of being punctual, and the fact that no delays have been mentioned).
Evidence of early "Q1" completion (aiming for January) from the following quotes....
2a) From UK Presentation "Scoping Study due in Q1 2012" - as mentioned
2b) Asf120 has reminded us - Nimrodel announcement from 24th October, 2011 stated -
"Completion of the study is expected to take four months with the final results expected for completion in January 2012"
2c) The DJC research note says of the study -
“The study is due for completion by 1Q 2012"
2d) Pizza quote above
2e) From the "HIGH GRADE" article entitled "Out of the Blue", Chris Mason states -
"By quarter one next year with completion of the scoping study we will have a really good idea of where we are headed and what the market is and what the economics are around the different options"
2f) From the "Diamonds Aren't Necessarily Forever" article we see -
"scoping study..... due in January"
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STAGE 3 - ANALYSIS of the SCOPING STUDY DATA BY NIMRODEL
This is not a 5 minute job - as a lot is hinging on Takatokwane to draw investors to Nimrodel and to provide an early source of income for Nimrodel to progress Botswana and others projects/licenses in the pipeline!
Positive being that NMR directors seek to benefit directly from SP appreciation - as they still all hold every single one of their "Walkabout" performances shares. They are pushing ahead as quick as they can to get the project earning income.
What is required in the analysis of the scoping study has been mentioned in past media, and NMR releases. As we can see - this will be a lot of data to evaluate - and factor into the immediate NMR strategy.
3a) From UK presentation 2012 -
"Coal resource geological information and mine planning •Market analysis for beneficiated coal and ‘added value’ products •Options for commercially available processes to derive ‘added value’ products"
3b) From the "HIGH GRADE" article entitled "Out of the Blue", Chris Mason states -
"The study will look at the market opportunities that lie within Botswana and the southern African region. The geological aspects of the Takatokwane deposit, mining techniques and engineering, supply and demand fundamentals for power and domestic coal use, and value added products for beneficiating coal will all be addressed by the study. “One of the avenues we will be looking at is above ground gasification to produce power with the by-product being sulfuric acid and methanol. I’m very keen to avoid new technologies that are unproven and not commercialized. Above ground gasification is essentially an off the shelf process and has proven commercial ability over many years,” Mason said.
"The region is also very short of diesel and that is another opportunity we will scope in this first round.”
Mason wants to pursue value-added products to make the most the deposit, and while export coal will be the company’s end-game, it is some way away given there is no coal export infrastructure in Botswana. Value-adding means Nimrodel can start mining sooner, and take advantage of the lesser-quality shallower seams. “The shallower coal is where we are going to need to produce economic outcomes in the short term and if we can come up with opportunities there that satisfy the local demand for value-added products - it’s killing two birds with one stone. It’s increasing economic return for our deposit and supporting a local demand in the region,” Mason said.
3c) From the "Diamonds Aren't Necessarily Forever" article we also see -
"Nimrodel technical director Peter Batten told RESOURCESTOCKS the company was exploring all avenues to take advantage of Botswana's energy needs....
...But Nimrodel has plans to quadruple the value of the material dug out of the ground...
...What they want to do is issue licenses that encourage people to look at downstream processing and future benefits for Botswana...
... The scoping study is looking at a number of ways to deal with coal, particularly offshoot products like synthetic diesel and gas, plastics, fertilizers and even possible uses for fly ash...
... "We're not kidding ourselves", Batten said...
... " It's all about risk reward. That's what the scoping study is doing - looking at the risk and asking, is the reward big enough for us to go down that line?"
3d)From the DJC broker / research note-
"NMR has yet to determine the commercialisation route but currently four processing options are being considered for the study, viz a viz, syngas production for potential power generation and/or fuel and chemical production; power generation from coal (fired power station); direct liquefaction; and coal beneficiation for local and export markets."
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STAGE 4 - PUBLICATION of the SCOPING STUDY DATA BY NIMRODEL
It is then our chance as shareholders, and the greater markets chance to react to the scoping study results - and any analysis/input from NMR staff / consultants.
Evidence of the receipt of scoping study by NMR, and then its slightly delayed publication as follows...
4a) From DJC research note - "We look for upgrade to this once drill results are forthcoming from Phase II, which should be a further value catalyst for the stock, in addition to the publication of the Scoping Study document towards the end of 1Q2012."
4b) From the "HIGH GRADE" article entitled "Out of the Blue", Chris Mason hints at the slight delay in publication (to allow time for NMR strategy to be completed) -
"Once the scoping study is completed and Nimrodel has defined its future path, it will look to bring on a partner to assist in developing the project."
4c)From DJC research note - we also see that PUBLICATION of the scoping study is a separate issue from the ANALYSIS AND REVIEW of the scoping study by Nimrodel.
"...the market has not yet recognized the value proposition. We believe a potential catalyst for this will be the publication of the Scoping Study report, which should set the rough parameters for a potential operation, or at least, define which options NMR are considering to move the project to the next level"
4d) From NMR annoucement (the biggie!) on Nov 16 2011, we see the word "reporting" used in conjunction with the time period of "first quarter" as opposed to the month January specifically -
"Completion of the maiden resource estimation is essential in advancing the Company’s ongoing Scoping Study which is on schedule for reporting in the first quarter of 2012"
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So summing scoping study stages up, bsh reckons...
1) PRELIMINARY SCOPING STUDY RESULTS: These should have been in NMR clutches for some time now. All is looking good too - with the southern TRIPROP "farm in" progressed and drill results looking good. At very least we are looking similar to our favorite peers - AFR AVA etc.
2) COMPLETION OF SCOPING STUDY: I believe that given their punctual nature and record - NMR may well have the scoping study on their desks right now (given it is the 29th of January). They are not obligated to tell us immediately - and they have to weigh up the pros and cons first.
3) ANALYSIS BY NMR: Nimrodel have promised that they will review the study as quickly as possible / practical - and work out a strategy in conjunction with "Nightingale" work. There are many reasons why they will push to get this done ASAP.
4) PUBLICATION: For the punters. We will see what NMR have come up with in the way of strategy and what the "Nightingale" study itself concluded/suggested - both due for release before Q1 ends.
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Who knows - NMR might surprise with an announcement sooner than we think - as pressure builds and the conferences / sale pitch etc come closer.
As we know - it has been stated that NMR has had "preliminary" scoping study results for some time (as suggested in the UK presentation). Its highly likely they are well into their analysis - and they would be working away at it as fast as possible no doubt.
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Picking hairs with grammar maybe???!!! - but I think this is what they are trying to tell us.
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And we are not locked into the results or recommendations suggested by Nightinggale either.
From the "Diamonds" article we see...
"But Batten insists Nimrodel does not have to follow the study, due in January, to the letter if management or shareholders are not happy with what it says. " We are here to improve the value of the stock for the shareholder and that's the sole goal", Batten says. "Is downstream processing better for the share price? If it is, follow it."
Some comfort there for holders....!?!
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Lots to look forward to very soon - January 2012 done and dusted. Q1 will disappear just as quick!
We will see results soon no doubt!
DYOR and all that - racka racka racka
bsh
NMR Price at posting:
5.3¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)