Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 0 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F 1 Revenue[/B] 95.6 110.5 120 137.3 148 173.2 199.2 229.1 2 Gross profit 36.8 45 49.3 68.3 71.6 76.3 89.6 103.1 3 EBITDA 15.6 17.7 17.5 16.5 12.4 16.1 19.9 22.9 4 Ratios 5 Revenue growth (%) n/a 15.6% 8.6% 14.4% 7.8% 17.0% 15.0% 15.0% 6 EBITDA growth (%) n/a 13.5% -1.1% -5.7% -24.8% 29.8% 23.7% 15.0% 7 Gross margin (%) 38.5% 40.7% 41.1% 49.7% 48.4% 44.1% 45.0% 45.0% 8 EBITDA margin (%) 16.3% 16.0% 14.6% 12.0% 8.4% 9.3% 10.0% 10.0% 9 Valuation 10 Enterprise Value n/a n/a $ 90.9m $ 85.6m $ 76.1m $ 131.6m $ 163.3m $ 187.8m 11 Market capitalisation n/a n/a $ 89.2m $ 74.4m $ 59.5m $ 123.5m $ 158.3m $ 185.8m 12 Share price $ 0.30 $ 0.25 $ 0.20 $ 0.42 $ 0.53 $ 0.62 13 EBITDA multiple 5.2x 5.2x 6.1x 8.2x 8.2x 8.2x
These multiples are quite low for a business that is growing revenue 12% annualised since FY11. Gross margin has remained relatively consistent highlighting the underlying strength of the business.
I have assumed the business continues to pay down debt in FY17 and FY18, increasing enterprise value.
As can be seen, assuming no material amount of new shares are issued a share price of $0.53 is achievable by 30 June 2017 assuming 15% revenue growth and consistent EBITDA margins of 10%.
This is a premium of 61% to the current share price of $0.33 (9/11/2016).
Scream with me, BUY BUY BUY BUY!
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2 | 21999 | 0.110 |
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4 | 91012 | 0.100 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.145 | 124000 | 4 |
0.150 | 33555 | 2 |
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