scrutiny of tol conditions = more delays

Not sure why my previous post was moderated given the story of Malaysian ministers emailing for the second time in 2 days was picked up by multiple news sources. However if it appeases people below is one of the links:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-12/malaysia-clashes-with-lynas-on-need-to-export-rare-earth-waste.html

What I was trying to highlight is that reading between the lines it does appear that Lynas is being backed into a position by government whereby the company itself and not the government or politics of Malaysia can be blamed for the failure of the business. The goal posts continue to be moved against the company and with the issue of waste being made front and centre for the public, then if popular opinion takes hold then these "implied" conditions by the ministers in question will become reality.

Even if you think Lynas can jump through all of these hoops, then this additional scrutiny of the TOL conditions will result in further delays until real commerical production rates are achieved. How can the company possibly meet its most recently stated production targets when this is happening? The ramp up in production will be very low and measured at best. If you consider the time taken to confirm alternative uses of waste, then Q3 2013 is probably a realistic date for full production capacity for phase 1.

Finally while people were sensitive to my change of sentiment to the company. As an investor I reserve the right to change my mind when the facts change and in the last 48 hours the facts have changed. My interpretation of those facts is that the Malaysian government does not want this project to succeed under current ownership and will do what it can to close things down while not damaging their international reputation too much. To achieve that means forcing Lynas into a position whereby it has to agree to conditions it cannot meet, so that Lynas is viewed as the bad guy.

As per the last post, I will be out on the open...