BP8 0.00% 0.1¢ bph global ltd

Here are some of the scenarios in my view that could play out in...

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    Here are some of the scenarios in my view that could play out in terms of how the brokers, including Tribecca, could "sell" the raise to the clients ...might be stating the obvious here, but just in the spirit of the discussion

    1) JV indicates a change in the direction of the company i.e. from a research organisation burning cash to a wannabe producer/manufacturer earning revenue via contracts for sales. Include the potential of Hemp stuff as well in the same angle if the JV is related to sea grapes or vice versa.

    Likely outcome: slow and steady raise in the price/mcap as long as mgmt is delivering per milestones

    2) JV is decent, but can't be sold as a change in the direction. So, brokers pump the price up artificially, tell the clients how good the market reacted to the JV, and what sort of potential gains they could make. Indicate another one coming soon...and market it. For example, if the SP goes to 2.5c and stays there, there would be many who is happy to take a punt at 1.5c irrespective of the JV

    Likely outcome: pump...keep the price afloat till the end of Feb, do a raise, price comes back to around CR...shares allocated, some good news released to churn the new shares (note no free 1:2 options, so incentive to sell shares at or above CR price)....then each to their own after that

    3) JV info is not released yet, but the raise is done pre-announcement without revealing all the info..encouraging punters basically. Happened in AS2's case recently I think (might be wrong here), where a Lithium acquisition was flagged in the term sheet but not full details about which tenement etc. Still got 10x oversubscribed...Lithium is hot, so kind of slightly different story, but you get the concept.

    Likely outcome: a pump on open if the JV is average to give punters some "window" to book profits then a rush to exits. If it's a good JV, you know the distribution pattern brokers follow

    4) JV info is released, but luke warm reaction from the market i.e. trust issues. Brokers struggle to sell the raise.

    Likely outcome: either the raise fails/postponed/reduced or if Tribeca believes in the story, they could cornerstone it

    I've been studying some stocks which have been suspended for prolonged period of time and noticed that some good opportunities were presented in most of them. The trick is...these opportunities only are obvious in hindsight, not in reality...unless you have a clear exit strategy.

    DLM is an example (yes, not like to like, but bear with me please), suspended for a while but reinstated with a good story (I think they took a big change of direction too) and a raise...pre suspension at 5c, opened at 6.3c, went all the way to 10.5c and been ranging between 6c and 10c.

    It's all in the hands of deep pockets, they can drive these micro caps however they like. Wish management haven't burned bridges with the suspension dramas...based on the AGM voting numbers, it looks like they managed the Top20 well. Because of the lack of big numbers in the votes, I couldn't figure out whether the big boys are ok and will show their support or they simply have not bothered to vote and will show their power and frustration on the market by dumping big time. If Rosen's comments in the AGM, plus the other stuff, reached their ears, then we might be ok! Fingers crossed!

    An interesting open for sure....in all scenarios, I'm thinking an exodus first to relieve all the nervous holders from the pain of holding this baggage during suspension, and then the real direction would be decided.

    All IMO, please DYOR

    @Protagonist, thanks for sharing that update mate, appreciated. I assume this info is post the AGM from Rosen? An early reinstatement would be a nice surprise indeed. The closer we run towards that 18th, the more chances of an extension, as we've seen so far.
 
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