GXY (ASX) SDV + Mt Cattlin v Pilgangoora

Originally posted by binwood ↑

M92 mostly a fair post and objective view. A few comments in return.

OPEX

Obviously until the mine is producing opex will be a projection rather than a full figure. I assume PLS in the early days will be c. $300 to be honest. Even this number will vary depending on a couple of things. Firstly whether any value is realised for tantalite (maybe, maybe not). Secondly how the commissioning goes. I expect Pilgangoora to be cheaper than Cattlin on the basis of a larger production base. Even at 2/3rds of nameplate Pily will be producing similar to what Cattlin is now so I expect the $300/tonne opex to be achievable within the first say 6-9 months and work down towards DFS numbers from there.

In mentioning the above this will apply to any new project globally, hard rock or brine, just look at ORE. I doubt SDV will have that many issues but it won't be smooth sailing either so it is fair to acknowledge this across the board.

CAPEX

CAPEX of 214m is based on 171m + 18m contingencies + other costs. The fixed price contract with RCR announced earlier in the year was for a maximum of 148m. On this basis I think it is fair to say that the capex figure should come in under $200m.

Also to say that PLS is $170m short is a little disingenuous. Part of previous quarters spending plus a large part of the $26m expected spend for Q2 has been on long lead items/construction costs. So to say that all that spending has occurred and their is still the full capex amount outstanding is wrong. I suspect something more like $120-150m of outstanding costs with $40m in the bank + $26m from Ganfeng (according to published reports) means we are probably $60-80m short. I expect that to be debt funded.

Timelines:

Hard to predict. You may be right, you might be wrong. We will have to wait and see.

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Hey binwood,

I've done some reading and generally agree with your thoughts. Few things I noted.

1. PLS Opex dfs US$333/t without tantalum credits. Gxy latest ramp up opex is US$389/t excluding marketing and royalties costs (Probably add US$60/t) but also no tantalum credits utilised. Gxy says this will reduce over coming quarters once steady state achieved.

So all in all they will be quite similar though agree PLS will produce cheaper.

2. The foster stockbroking report suggests the remaining PLS funding to be a mix of equity,debt and prepayment. Likely equity component of AUD$50million. This would add a further 147million shares at current share price.

3. Both hard rock plants will be nice little profitable operations. Though comparing either to sal de vida - well neither even come close! PLS annual net cash flow will be AUD$100m while GXY Sal de vida is estimated at AUD$240m. Now that is a serious cash cow!