Was interested in exploring the actual effect of consolidations...

Was interested in exploring the actual effect of consolidations on share prices rather than the 2 theoretical views we've been kicking around in here so I ran a little research on it.

1) I had a look for ASX companies that had run a consolidation in the last 12 months (easy enough to find = enter "share consolidation" into google with Australian sites and a time period)

2) Firstly I assumed that we'd see a share price pre & post with a difference of the consolidation factor (eg $0.09 pre a 10:1 consolidation and $0.90 post). But I hadn't realised that the ASX actually adjust their historical prices of the share to allow the charting to be comparible.
see : https://blog.shareinvestor.com/share-consolidations-and-share-splits/
"Effects of Share Consolidations and Share Splits on Historical Price Data and Per Share Ratios

As illustrated in the above examples, both Share Consolidations and Share Splits have an effect on the price of the share when it trades on ex-entitlement basis following the conclusion of the corporate action. Hence, price adjustment on historical data prior to the Ex-Date will be applied as at market close on the Last Cum Date. The purpose of the historical price adjustment is to allow for comparability between prices on the Ex-Date and Cum Dates."

3) so then it is just a simple matter of looking a the price charts for any of the companies that have been through a consolidation and see if there is a repeated share movement

The ones I looked at in no particular order were:
LYC 1 for 10 Nov 17 (increased from Oct 17)
MOD 1 for 10 Apr 18 (declined into Apr 18)

GMR 1 for 15 Dec 18 (been declining since Jan 16 - would have been an easy short!)

STA 1 for 10 Oct 18 (decline into Oct 18)
NEU 1 for 20 Nov 21 17 (nearly tripled in price)
AZS 1 for 20 Nov 21 17 (50% increased into Nov 17)

feel free to expand my research but on these 6 there is no discernable predictable effect on share price in the month leading up to a consolidation.