I believe its a supply side story ... and oversupply would get worse with slowing economies as oil demand drops (China, Europe are slowing).
$60 avg everything is Model D & $265M in EBITDAX based on modeled decline and new production addition (see production decline thread where a 2019 flat state Capex was determined ... haven't bothered with 2020 flat). As you say your midpoint of $230M is 15% lower ... do you not believe SEA production guidance and 2019 well program?
IMO "A" is really bad news ... SEA will be forced to hedge around $50 to protect the capital invested (what was said on Conf Call ... hedges applied when drilling commitment made). That's hedging about 30% of a well's EUR at a low point.
As far as longer laterals go, CHK does this a lot ... but you need the rightsize "blocky" acreage. If SEA has it they would do it too. They had a couple over 8,000'.
Hoping for "C" and some deferred drilling in H1 & back-end loaded H2 D&C to still reach the 21,500 avg.
Better question is will SEA be a 3 handle next week?
