I've been surprised by the lack of comment on HC about the two...

I've been surprised by the lack of comment on HC about the two big surprises in the rig announcement
1) the additional new area and
2) moving the first drill from South Fish in the original area to Seaclem-1 in the new area.

This looked like a big increase in possible resources but later I saw the paragraph below from Upstreamonline.com which seems to contradict this.

For the full permit, resources estimate was revised down to a mean 6.09 Tcf from a mean 7.5 Tcf following analysis of reprocessed seismic data. If proved up the resources would represent an accumulation bigger than the Pluto find being developed by Woodside off Western Australia

I rang MMR and talked to Toby who hadn't seem the UpstreamOnline article but agreed it seemed wrong. Possible resources have increased not decreased.

Possible resources (TCF) are now (at P50) 5.1 + 6.09 OGIP.

OGIP means whats in the ground. You never get it all out. Recovery factors for gas range from about 40% to 95% with an average about 70%.
Assuming a RF of 70% means possible resources (TCF at P50) are 5.1 + 6.09 * 0.7 = 5.1 + 4.263 = 9.363 (83% increase)
Obviously the RF is very important here, similar calc using 40% & 95% give much smaller and bigger increases respectively.

Other results are
P90 RF=40% 1.2 to 1.91 TCF 59% increase
P90 RF=70% 1.2 to 2.44 TCF 103% increase
P90 RF=95% 1.2 to 2.88 TCF 140% increase
P50 RF=40% 5.1 to 7.54 TCF 48% increase
P50 RF=70% 5.1 to 9.36 TCF 83% increase
P50 RF=95% 5.1 to 10.9 TCF 113% increase
P10 RF=40% 16.3 to 26.18 TCF 60% increase
P10 RF=70% 16.3 to 33.63 TCF 106% increase
P10 RF=95% 16.3 to 39.82 TCF 144% increase
Mean P* RF=40% 7.5 to 11.9 TCF 58% increase
Mean P* RF=70% 7.5 to 15.1 TCF 101% increase
Mean P* RF=95% 7.5 to 17.9 TCF 138% increase

Why did they change the the target to Seaclem-1?
For South Fish P50 is 2.36 TCF
For Seaclem-1 P50 is 6.09 TCF OGIP = 4.263 TCF (at RF 70%) 80% increase
ie Seaclem-1 is a much bigger target.


Remember DYOR. Currently hold MMR and GBA.