Merry Christmas everyone and a prosperous, healthy and happy 2024.
My Xmas message will be a little bit long. Apologize for that.
WE ARE STRONG
As
@dynofish said we have the best community on HC, and we all have supported each other in this difficult year.
We are still strong because we know the value of our KV project asset. We have enough education and info, an of course analytical skills to identify the BS of manipulator insto reports about the lithium market.
WE CAN IDENTIFY THE LIES AND LIERS..!
We have enough mental health to understand how a big lie to say lithium demand growth will be 20% but lithium supply will be 40% in 2024 (recent UBS report). They aid the same thing for 2023 but it happened the opposite (demand ~45%, supply no more than ~20%).
LITHIUM PRICE BOTTOMED, NOW HAS TO GO UPWARD
The lithium price is down only because; 1) The increase in Chinese lepidolite processing, 2) Some little African hard rock import to China and 3) Destocking.
I will give more information about the Chinese lepidolite resources and processing later on. They don't have much of it. The total of Chinese lepidolite resources in LCE terms is not much more than LTR's resource in LCE terms (Around 6mt LCE). That is not enough for the whole life of lithium supply in China. They also have to keep it as a strategic resource on their own ground but not to use it all and run out of national reserves (if they are smart enough). Also they are shooting themselves by high volume lepidolite processing and lowering the lithium price which will disable their processing capacity as there is no profit anymore. Therefore the lepidolite processing of China is not sustainable anymore.
Everything shows another lithium price cycle significantly upward.
WE HAVE THE POWER
We will most probably receive a bid form a Hancock-XXX JV in the new year. If we don't like the price we will still have the opportunity to block the sale. We have the power as LTR has a very high number of retail holders which are bonded together. ALB knew that. I hope Gina will understood that and won't make a mistake by making a too low offer for our project.
It was well understood from many discussions here that most of us are happy to go to production and aren't happy with $3 offer despite LTR board might be happy to sell it at $3.
CURRENT SP OF LTR IS NOT REFLCETING ITS REAL VALUE
The current sp of LTR is irrelevant to its real value IMO. I don't care whatever it is now. They are trying to demoralise us by exaggerating the royalty issue (by publishing news on everywhere, especially AFR), they are trying to do their best to fool us. I don't believe any of these news has any significant material effect on our project.
When we start production in June 2024 the mcap of LTR must be at least $8b (implies $3.30 ps). However I would even not happy with that price. We will eventually will be at the same mcap with PLS. In 2025 LTR will have $10b plus mcap, it may happen earlier as well.
I'd recommend to those punters that if they come up with any low ball offer I'm not going to sell my shares.
WE ARE THE KEY STAKE HOLDER
Let's not forget that we are 30,000+ retail holders and no one can buy it without our permission (50% of headcount can vote "NO". So simple). We have the key blocking stake. Even Hancock couldn't buy more than 15% of shares at ~$3 last time because her broker couldn't convince the holders to sell them. They had to buy 5% from shorters. I hope they have already understood who they are dealing with. We aren't like the weak holders of other stocks. We know what we are doing.
IF WE DON'T LIKE THE OFFER WE CAN REJECT AND BLOCK IT
This time the new offer should be different if they want to make one, it should be satisfactory.
They can't make an offer less than $3 before mid Feb 2024. If they make a new offer at $3 which is not going to make us happy, then we may reject it. Then they would have to wait another 4 months for making a new offer.
The new offer could be made in mid June 2024. Then it's certain that we would not accept anything between $3 and $4 as LTR will already start the production.
So those guys who want to buy LTR should think twice, even more than twice. If they are not after a WIN-WIN situation we are not going to be the loser side but they will be.
I would recommend them not to make any offer if they can't make a good one. Otherwise we will fight. Let us go to the production. No hassle. We are happy to get our dividends.
(20min delay)
