As I see it there is very little opportunity to grab market...

As I see it there is very little opportunity to grab market share other than via FFF.

FFF sees itself as the only independent (ASX listed) mortgage broker.

The position appears to be -
RHG - 'been throught the fire' - a closed mortgage book (no new loans being written)and already assessing an asset sale approach
MOC - a franchise based mortgage broker and therefore may not be seen as a suitable takeover option
Aussie - CBA has a stranglehold
FFF - ?? likely to be amenable to a takeout once the dust settles


Loan portfolios (as best I can ascertain) :
$36B - Aussie
$70B - AFG (an unlisted public company)
$40B - MOC
$21B - FFF

On this basis FFF is right in the mix but the shareprice is wallowing. Once recapitalised, substantially free of debt and with some improved financials on record FFF will become a desireable takeover option possibly by one of the major players - I don't think the other banks would want CBA to grab FFF, so it could be interesting times over the next 12-18 months.

There are some still issues :
- the recapitalisation deal is not yet done (still a few boxes to tick) but that aside it looks like a done deal
- things are going very slowly (EGM to approve the recap. likely to be late 4/2013)
- it would be nice to know who are the key investors behind the AC&E offer
- ultimately if all goes as planned there will be around three billion shares on issue which will keep a lid on the share price (unless there is a capital restructure in the future).

All this aside I am a long term holder (a recent buyer - been a holder in the past) and see that the announcements to date will put a floor under the SP - hopefully not less than AC&E's entry point which is likely to end up being around 2.9c overall (will depend on what underwriting amount, if any, they take up). A final thought - the more shares held by AC&E the less shares openly available to Mr and Mrs Joe Average and that should be good for the SP.

Happy investing - let the good times roll !!!


DYOR as these comments/ramblings are just MHO