This is either the biggest dead cat bounce in history or it's the biggest and fastest turnaround in history during the biggest disruption in history at a time when markets we already extremely fragile with debt before the crisis already at all time highs and interest rates at all time lows with real wage growth dead in the water all while the crisis still has a loooooong time to go and we have barely even seen the economic impact yet.
People are only just starting to face their incomings nowish...
I think the entire market has still got a long way to go down :'(
Make no mistake, this virus is exposing a debt crisis that has been building for a while. I agree that governments are doing everything they can but throwing inviting infinite debt at a debt problem and expecting it to go away without any repercussions is extraordinary.
Society is starting to show cracks starting to appear between tenants and land Lords, between home sellers and buyers, between the masses and the now overreaching authorities, between home buyers and banks, employers and employees etc.
This is bad and don't let the falling infection rates woo you too much. We are doing good against the virus but as it stands the economic impact is going to be orders of magnitude worse.
All the government is doing is creating money.... Not because that's their best option or because it's a well defined and mapped out strategy of handling these situations but more because that's the only weapon that they've got.
Will we get inflation, deflation or stagflation?
- either way it's gonna be devastating.
Thinking that humanity can go through a disruption like this and fix it by bailing out countless corporations and buying every piece of junk in the ASX without expecting there to be homeless people tent cities, America style, is very optimistic... Or deranged maybe?
Looks like for now the cat is still defying gravity but in this universe gravity wins.
Good luck all, but I'm out and waiting for my re entry.
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