Seeking Alpha, page-13

That could be a bottleneck for EV production and related NdPr demand.

I think the interesting part here is that Western EV production is increasingly looking towards non Chinese sources of permanent magnets.... which is Japanese supply.... which LYC currently supplies..




It may be that as we see world ex-China move to non Chinese NdPr / magnet makers, then the Shanghai Metals Exchange spot price becomes less relevant. This trend is provided a near term catalyst driven (sorry for pun) by the US EV subsidy requirements which requires the RE / magnets to come from the US (or "friendly countries", so Aus / Japan) for the vehicle to be eligible for the subsidy.

I wonder what the result would be if in a year's time LYC, or any other western RE company, were to auction their product such as PLS does via the BMX... would it trade at a premium and how much would this deviate from "spot"?

The only issue here is the JRE preferential supply relationship of course. But the emergence of such a premium would be then transmitted through to their pricing mechanism for JRE.

Also I would keep an eye on Nidec and similar Japanese magnet makers. There may be a reason we haven't seen any EU agreements for HRE / LRE plants such as with the US. It may be that Japan's PM makers will be the answer to supplying the EU with their required products for wind / EV motors in the medium term, rather than what the US is seeking to achieve by securing guaranteed local RE supply near term.

This would be supported by the huge push of companies such as Nidec into Europe, especially their operations on the edge of Eastern Europe / Balkans.



Anyway, all interesting stuff, have a top day everyone except CJ!