Yes and both Lynas and Japan are at max which is why AL and POL say no drop in demand is being seen. I have not seen an updated number in a few years but last I saw Japan was still getting 65% of NDPR from China . Trouble Lynas is still just barley producing Initial name plate capacities. They have not even approached NEXT rates for a full Q. The sales are there but Lynas has to make. it.
Name plate is 6000 T a year of NdPr or 1500 a Q
Next is 7200 a year 1800 a Q.
Here is a chart of Q production. If you want to check my numbers or go back further, Lynas publishes the Production for every Q in the Q4 report. Many people say what a down ramper I am because I do not believe the 2025 numbers will be reached for several years after that. It is simple, until I see a year that gets close to Next numbers, I just say show me. Right now, they have never even broken Name plate in any year. That is a long way from Next.
| | FY 2020 | Fy 2021 | Fy 2022 |
|---|
| 1 | Q1 | 1,242 | 1,342 | 1,255 |
|---|
| 2 | Q2 | 1,270 | 1,367 | 1,359 |
|---|
| 3 | Q3 | 1,369 | 1,359 | 1,687 |
|---|
| 4 | Q4 | 775 | 1,393 | 1,579 |
|---|
| 5 | Total | 4,656 | 5,461 | 5,880 |
|---|
China still makes close to 80% of oxides and even higher for magnets. I think any thought of Shanghai metals market not being important in the next 20 years is just wrong. Now I am sure other metals markets will grow and become relevant. But to think Shanghai will go away or cease to be relevant, I just do not see happening. I do expect in the next 4~10 years you might even see REE oxides and metals on the CBOEThats is interesting. Can you now explain whay China on Friday Sept 2 announced plans to support REE and Lithium prices. Monday REE just went down a little Tuesday a little less Wednesday no change. Today nothing went down Nd and NDPR oxides and metals went up, Please justify what you say against recent events. I find it interesting that every body on this board cheers and raves about AL increasing production. They then say China for doing the same thing is evil. I wonder what this board would say if AL said to support WW REE prices, I am cutting Production by 20%I think I have said this at least 10 times before. I do not have a price! If you read any investment books it will tell you setting a buy or sell price is usually not a good idea. Except for very short duration Like a GTC for a week or so. I will buy Lynas when I see the:
- Possibility of long term profit Revenue and Book value growth.
To make this happen the next two have to happen- REE prices have to stabilize
- Second to that is what numbers will Markets support for a promising growth stock. When all of these are somewhat true i will buy If that will occur at AUD 11 or $2, I have no idea.
I do have many more, these are the big ones.
AR brought Profit and revenue in line to be what they should be. unfortunately recent REE changes says the SAR and very probably the AR will put these out of wack yet again. Things can change and I am a pessimist so I will wait till I see an improvement.
(20min delay)