Seeking Alpha, page-7

Dammit... accidently pressed post lol

Second attempt!

These articles are mostly written by a computer. Just ignore them and look at the key catalysts for LYC, the rest of the sector / overall market, and it's pretty obvious why the share price has come under weakness.

To be frank, the fact the SP is above $8 with NdPr spot falling as it has (ignoring the fact we all agree it's mostly due the best efforts of the Chinese to push down prices short term and weaken emerging companies obtaining funding for future supply) is a positive for LYC and could result in a higher-low being formed on a multi year view, where Chinese's lockdowns come to an end, EV bottle necks are resolved and wind turbine manufacturers / purchases find more stable input pricing confidence to commit again to larger multi year orders. That may

Whenever I see a stock being subject to significant short term pressure, which is obviously transitionary, it's usually the time to get set.

Look at when China manipulated the iron ore price in 2020/21, it led to a significant impact to the spot price, inventories dew down to extraordinary low levels and it set the miners up for a terrific outlook... China had to buyback their drawn inventories on top of their higher levels of iron ore demand at the same time as the rest of the world was gearing up for an abrupt global economic recovery.

Short term price weakness at the time when the green energy transition is clearly picking up immense global interest, investment flows, government support, company M & A interest and future contractual project commitments.... I suppose China didn't learn the last time. Price manipulation has, this time, provided an excellent catalyst to expedite future demand of RE.

The the exponential nature of the growth rate of adoption of new technologies (be it electricity, telephone, personal cars, internet, Wifi, smart phones, the cloud etc) and fertile commodity pricing is colliding. I'm looking forward to seeing the results.

FYI the last RE boom in 2010-11, where China sent prices skyrocketing, killed demand as end consumers sought alternatives. It ended up being a huge negative for the RE industry for the next decade....

The opposite is likely to occur this time around. By the time NdPr prices skyrocket it'll be too late for companies to invest the time and dollars to immediately bring to market alternative solutions materially impacting the supply demand imbalance, such as what occurred last decade and cratered the NdPr price.

The incomprehensible scale of the energy transition the world is embarking on, all at the same time, and the resultant exponential growth outlook on the demand side will likely mean companies struggle to innovate alternative solutions in real time, instead simply seek ways to reduce NdPr intensity and reduce the impact of cost pressures and and maintain margins.

Actually, let's think about this for a moment.... Japan, a country with advanced (and specific magnet) manufacturing technology, capabilities and know-how, still hasn't been able to produce an alternative solution to NdPr intensive permanent magnets, so as to reduce their reliance on China's RE (and LYC for that matter).... and they have had more than a decade to do have a crack at doing so.... Hmmm.

Anyway rant over haha.. FYI All my own personal views and not financial advice! DYOR