seems fmg cannot make export target 2008

There has been debate on other threads re this issue. I have read various articles and made inquiries. Difficult to know EXACT situation but my finding/understanding is:
1)FMG aim to load 20M tons between 15/05 and 31/12/08 and 50M tons/yr after that.
2) Have loaded 2 vessels by 07/06. 1x140kT and 1x 180kT.
3) BHP have booked ALL available Cape vessels (140Kt+) over the next 7 months. This info is from Loyds the world's biggest shipping agent/insurer.
4)Current turnaround time to load/travel/unload/return is 22-24 days.
5) To achieve 20M tons in 32 weeks at av. size 170kT is 117 vessels in 224 days= 1 vessel every 1.9 days!!

So far FMG have loded 2 vessels in 20 days!!!
FMG liable for interest payments of bit over $250M/yr.
Banks are expecting repayment of principle loaned to begin in Jan 2009 at the latest.

IF (and it is a big if) FMG can make a clear margin of $40/ton then needs to sell 6.25million tons/annum just to cover interest owing.

With such a drastic shortage of ships how can FMG possibly meet their targets? IO is stockpiling at the wharf. IO prices due to be announced soon. But if ships are only arriving every 14+ days.... sales will be well short of targets.

Need i say it. The recession looming in USA and Europe will affect China's growth which is dependent on strong export markets. Hence MASSIVE increase in IO price (as most analysts expect)is not a sure thing.

Hence, i see FMG SP slipping until situation improves. If someone has more news re ship availability they should post the latest situation. Charts cannot tell reader what the fundamentals are doing.