DCN 0.00% 28.5¢ dacian gold limited

SEEMS TIME TO GIVE UP, page-494

  1. 3,806 Posts.
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    My understanding is that NTM and DCN merged without any cash changing hands. Based on the SPs at the time, I remember that the terms favoured NTM and I nearly bought NTM to take advantage but decided in the end to give it a miss only to regret that when DCN's SP jumped up in the New Year. As a result, I do appreciate that earlier DCN holders may feel aggrieved now that the SP has fallen back.
    Nevertheless, as a true merger, when I put the two companies statistics together, it looked to me as the combined company was stronger than either of them on their own. Both companies' cash on hand was put together, as was everything else. Hence, I cannot see how you can say that LJ splashed out for the NTM merger.
    If DCN now wants a CR to develop both the ex-NTM and DCN deposits, then is that any different from other companies raising cash for their exploration and development?
    There comes a time to put the past behind and to focus on the future. I may be proved wrong yet, in which case we will all suffer, but I think at current pricing DCN holds good potential to be rerated and regain favour in the marketplace.

    Here are the key measures for DCN that I follow when determining a gold company's value (impact of SPP excluded but just completed share placement included).
    Share Price = 27.5c
    Annual production (12 month forward, average estimate) = 115 Koz
    Estimated AISC = $1475/oz (average)
    12 month hedging = 31 Koz @ average $2217/oz
    Reserves = 754 Koz
    Resources = 2,644 Koz
    Mine life = 6+ years
    EV to Production = $1828/oz
    EV to Reserves = $283/oz
    EV to Resources = $80.8/oz
    Net Operating Revenue = $115M including hedges with unhedged gold sales at $2350/oz
    EV to Net Operating Revenue = 1.9
    Net Cash/Debt/Share = 4c cash; 14.7% of SP @ 27.5c

    There are very few gold producers on the ASX that overall have lower values than this. Any downside has to be limited.
    Presumably you hold because you think DCN has a future. If not then time to sell while you can,

    All the best to every holder, new and old.
 
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