sell and sell short if you need to

An unpalatable set of truths forces me to conclude the best way to make money off BHP at the moment is to short the ants off this thing.

Why?

Iron ore prices set to drop 25-50%, and volumes to be down 10-20%.

Coking coal prices set to drop 25-50% (and production cuts enroute, though BHP will never admit to it till someone forces them to do it via some Chinese industry website evidence, they respect you investors that much)

Manganese in the sock drawer, chrome naffed, copper half of what it used to be and EBITDA margins evaporating quick

Finally, AUD up 10% vs the greenback and set to continue thanks to Mad Drunk Captain Bernanke's Sideshow Pirate Money Fountain of fiscal frippery.

All signs point to total and utter collapse of profitability. I would hazard a guess that if 50% reflected a situation where none of the above was in effect, then looking forward we could expect a retracement of five years or so of share price to $12-15.

Time to get your bathers on.