GS bought about 98Milion ARI shares between Nov13 and Mar14. Given the bearishness that GS have regarding IO. they should not have held on since Feb/Mar. Yet GS have held on, and all the while ARI has been sold off more than any other IO stock, relentlessly manipulated down.
The only reason I can rationalise for this GS behaviour is that they have a bigger agenda at play, some end game yet to materialise. To my way of thinking that is either:
1) a takeover by GS friendly party, or 2)it was done to support a hedge fund shorting other IO stcoks ( say Chanos re FMG).
I predict it was done for future takeover bid and GS are driving the VWAP down so a bid can be lobbed in about the time P Smedley retires as Chariman in August/ September 2014.
I reckon , your prediction of $1.50 per share is on the mark for what they are trying to achieve, however without this manipulation it would be more like $2.00
If this bigger agenda is not the case, then how can it be explained that GS have just lost about $50M sitting on an ARI holding , whilst they are compelling the world that IO is headed for USD$80/T.
GS=Big fish, Big play.
FT
ARI Price at posting:
88.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
