BHP 0.94% $45.06 bhp group limited

I do only use option as indicator but i don't buy them in short...

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    I do only use option as indicator but i don't buy them in short term as short term is less working for me. Only long term has ever little work for me, more likely interested with movement of delta and gamma, but as I said, of course I know only little knowledge with option, than any Experts here. I use mainly emerging and working much better to leverage or to protect downside (rather than using option), as their correlation is much higher and no loss in premium/expensive price.

    The risk of Fed tightening and high inflation was very high to emerging but with terminal rate 5% going lower or cpi/ppi possibly peaked, it now gives huge relief to emerging, therefore I think bhp may still go stronger. I did short huge money to emerging in 2020, closed in 2021 and opening again around mid October this year when bhp was 36-38$, only reason why I was very confident that time looking at emerging Outside US markets had been very clear/strong prior to US rebounds which why there was a rumor of opening China lol

    The only questioning to me is how much Fed rate tonight. US3M was lower few days back but now is back going higher. I almost thought 25 bps few days ago, suggesting we would see lower cpi, but now bond is now going a little higher, I would say we may see 50 bps but that should be just close to the end of it for medium term cycle.

    When price was 36-38$, I might be rather few predicting bhp price would instead jump very fast (not slow rise lol) like a mach-10 in Maverick when more people were still looking for price below 36$ lol . Until now, I haven't been thinking to unload my leverage yet while all people are scared (possibly couldn't see the strong fundamental reasons?) but again I can be certainly wrong . I still hope we are going to break this resistance rather than going into deep correction. I don't think this suspension is mainly due to Fed rate tonight since Fed rate has been mostly expected well. I remember few years back, there was research showing that Central Bank is mostly rather market follower and rarely becoming decision maker. I think we are seeing more technical correction reason at the moment since the price was running too fast, or we may now start to think about a big downside risk/deflation, which is not good to commodity lower commodity price . However since I see current financial situation and emerging m supply is more supporting, I raised doubt that this correction could even see their put strike. If the options are longer expiry like 1-2 years, I think that may work. If I'm not mistaken, strike prices recently are too expensive, how can they meet their stike, if I doubt deep correction? What I meant with "margin put" was just a slang some people used as a margin call of some short action. Certainly I don't have any knowledge of the margin in put

    Sorry above are my own opinion, I don't copy cat. But my little opinion above can be definitely wrong
 
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