Sell price - Only for those considering it...

I realise that discussion on selling CVN shares now (rather than waiting for them to develop the potential at phoenix) is distasteful for many here, and I have therefore made the title here clear so you can just ignore this thread.  I gave up on other threads trying to discuss valuation because any talk of selling was down ramping, and the threads filled with people declaring the price would be over 30c/50c/$1 before the end of the week/month/year.

Please follow/reply to this thread only if you have looked at a valuation, including attributing risk to the current prospects, or technical analysis to determine potential sell prices for the short term.

I set out my valuation metrics in a previous post
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/cvn-current-price.2342681/page-46?post_id=13854942#.VARGTVm1bYg

I set out my reasoning based on risk and future value attributed to parts, and thought 28c looked good to sell short term and possibly buy back on dips below 24c, given there were unlikely to be any further value adding announcements for the next 2-3 months.  

Since then looking at the chart I have started to change my mind, given there is a fairly convincing up trend on consistent volume, showing good accumulation even this close to consensus valuations of just over 30c.  Given there were previously no significant holdings, or large institutions, I wonder if there could be some sustained buying to take us higher than that.  
I don't really see any near term price targets over maybe 34c (10% over consensus and the highest individual broker target I see).  Higher fib extensions to the 28c seem a bit out of reach for now.  There are no strong signals on oscillator indicators, so technically that leaves me with following the trend, watching momentum indicators, which are still good, but weakening like the trend is running out of steam. Most volume last week was 27c, after rising from 24c that would be a 50% retrace at 31c. I am thinking then maybe a decent break of 30c would see the sellers come back in force, maybe 30-31c sell.  This would be a price many who bought in recently near 20 would see a good 50% profit, worth selling down part holdings.  I see a bit much risk to be buying in now over 30c.

What do you think?