Sell price - Only for those considering it..., page-11

Icey,

imho we are about fair value atm, with the pullback, considering the risks, and POTENTIAL rewards.

Some here are ignoring the risks, but for me they are aplenty. There's oil down there and a lot of it that's for sure, but getting it out is always the challenge. I can see an awful lot of expensive horizontal drilling in each of four or more zones if they are going to drain from the whole 45 km2 or whatever. The low porosity can't help in getting the drainage reach away from the hole, however the nature of the fluid will be helpful.

Just picking up on a comment Ya made about sweet spots, and I think that they will initially just focus on these, with the initial field development plan for quite a low recovery, perhaps just enough to make the economics work, perhaps for as low as 30 mmbo. Once in production, and an understanding of the reservoir from both production and this development drilling a further round of drilling for fuller drainage can be planned at much lower risk with all the infrastructure in place. If reservoir uncertainties are high yet there are some good sweet spots I just can't see why you'd commit more than you had to at the start, even if the expected ultimate recovery was much higher.

In this case I just can't see the sp not having further pullbacks into the low/mid 20s, as those that bought "huge" etc become despondent and move on. This scenario struggles to justify the current sp.

Of course to counter this downside risk, there could be an exciting lead up to Roc, and if (in the unlikely case being exploration) it is a success then yes those that with the wishful sp targets above 50 will be happy.

So on balance I can see high probability downside to 20ish and perhaps one in five of getting into the 50 ish region. Small risk a bit lower and a lot in between. Also a good chance of further smaller spikes on further post Roc targets. Unless you have high risk appetite hard to fault anyone taking a lot off the table anywhere near 30. I might yet do this, but still hoping for a bit of irrational exuberance.

EL