I appreciate your post - thanks for bringing to our attention. Simon's position is understandable and in my view just another variation on what many have been saying on this blog.
His opinion on Axiron seems to fit the idea that there is not a lot of upside left in Axiron, particularly in view of the fact that the deal with Lilly forms an artificial barrier to promoting the product. I believe that Lilly could move a lot more product if they set their minds to it, but won't because they would end up paying out the bonus to ACR, and their return for effort would be low. ACR should re-negotiate the deal. But I am optimistic that Axiron revenues will be OK at current levels.
Next to move the company to a spec buy would mean that the company would need to instill belief in the pipeline. The sp would not just be valued by the market for Axiron revenues alone (as it is now), but also for future dollars the company is going to make.
I am not sure looking for a positive recommendation is helpful. My view is that anyone giving such a review would be pumping things up and the market will soon find them out.
If you are wanting to go positive here are the positives.
1. The business is a great idea - making existing drugs more effective rather then creating new ones.
2. Existing revenue is good and stable.
3. Here's the kicker - their is nothing wrong with this business that cannot be readily fixed by the right person. There are endless opportunities for improvement and change. The whole thing could be turned around in 2 to 3 years. Everything here is fixable. In many businesses, the easy options for change have already been exhausted - not so here. The steps to turn it from "sell" to "spec buy" can be documented, costed and executed. That's the huge hidden positive IMHO.
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