Hi extralite,
I like SMY. Fundamental analysis (my first consideration in picking stocks) shows it to be a great stock. I will definitely be in and out of it over the next 12 months.
Technical anaysis is then what I use to buy and sell on the dips and peaks. This is the way I work.
Contrary to your view, I think SMY is a great stock because it is behaving closely to my technical analysis over recent weeks...that said, I wouldn't ever claim to be infallible.
I recall Peter Harold recently saying to me that " the NPV of the project is around $0.70-$1.00 depending on Ni price & currency assumptions and since we are still 7 mths from production there are risks of delays and hence we should be trading at a discount to NPV"
Conservative speaking, I think the project is valued around 86c. Three things that will drive the price closer to $1 are: -
* getting closer to production which is expected in August...so expect a revaluation in say end June / beginning of July 2004
* futher positive results from drilling programme at Copernicus
* successful bidding of the WMC assets
In the meantime, I think SMY will trade within a range which will reward shot-termy traders who use technical analysis to pick the buy/sell points.
All the best
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