CW, good posting. I guess a bit like you I see financing as an issue that keeps some away from CXY at the moment, thus under-mining buyer volume and hence a slight decrease in shre price etc. It seems most of the decrease in share price is actually from lower volume, rather than an increase in sellers. We've seen this in CXY trading before of course! And every time along comes new volume and a sharp increase in share price is secured.
To me there ar two sides to the "financing" issue, that might be keeping some away. The first is whether CXY can secure funding at all, the second concerns the doubts (more like lack of transparency) regarding dilution. I've been on record as saying that the basic financial strength of a UCG project makes it eminently fundable. Internal ROI is strong, and becomes even stronger with rising electricity prices. In fact with CXY taking the strategic choiec to be geared to increased electricity prices (rather than higher capex and riskier Liquids options) gives CXY the very real prospect of achieving "super returns" as highlighted by several of the recent reports, especially the GoldOZ one.
I really do not see Direct Invest still being around if there was ANY, i.e. the absolute remotest, chance of not securing the financing required for the first UCG power station.
This therefore brings me to the second issue, i.e. the lack of transparency concerning this raising and its potential dilution effects. I know that CXY definately won't be anywhere near current share prices when the end of the year comes and finance is being raised. The question comes where will it be. We also know that the financing required will be split between debt and equity. Perhaps with debt to equity of around 60:40? That leaves around $300 x 40 per cent, or $120 million to be swallowed as equity. At 12 cents that equals 1 billion extra shares, 15 cents lowers this to 800 million, 20 cents to 600 million, 25 cents to 480 million and 30 cents to 400 million. Assuming we are somewhere in these share prices, driven no doubt by good news from Victoria and syngas quality at Kingaroy and success at Wandoan, and maybe good policy decisons from Queensland Government, it still means that dilution could be anywhere from 50 per cent (at 12 cents SP) to 35 per cent (at 30 cents SP).
Whichever way you think about it, this is a significant variation to "take-a-chance " on. Do you think CXY can address this in the short term? Because without it, I'm not sure I can see any significant move upwards (despite it being a raging under-valued stock) for a while yet.
CW, good posting. I guess a bit like you I see financing as an...
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