Ill post 2 EPS on different variables. Both models include Ansteel's placement happening. So shares on issue: 1,490,000,000 (seriously can't believe we have that many shares on issue now.... I invested in this when it was less than 500m).
Inflated EPS using current record high spot price:
EPS of $0.139. However this is really inflated as I've used the current spot price. GBG will be using contract price, which is based off the average spot price in the previous month.
EPS of $0.101 for 'average price of US$142' for a full year at nameplate production.
Note:
- 20% premium for magnetite, and 7% discount for DSO. - Have assumed a full year of production at nameplate: 8mtpa magnetite, 2mtpa DSO. So in reality this model doesn't start until end of April 2013. I cant be bothered doing a DCF or trying to estimate current actual production rates. Not to mention costs are still uncertain. - Production costs: AU$74 per tonne. Both magnetite and DSO. - Exchange rate used is $1.0283 (current). Again this is a weakness (variable) at present as the AUD has dived. Although it could dive further (we hope). - Royalties 5% magnetite, 7.5% DSO - CFR: Used $15 per tonne knocked off the priced received for all ore shipped. GBG does in theory incurr shipping, instead of paying it, it is knocked off the priced received. I can confirm this via an email received. - Interest rate 3%, with debt of $1,783,000,000. - Depreciation charge of $125m. This could +/- greatly. - Admin 20m
*Lastly the term of the debt is 10 years, GBG (well the JV) should have no problems meeting debt repayments given the current strong iron ore prices.* But note that the Karara JV is highly geared and presents huge risks. We need to show the market we can meet these obligations with a positive cash flow operation.
I've probably missed a few things which I haven't stated, but just ask (also haven't proof read any of this). I have all the details sitting on my excel models. These are my figures and shouldn't be used as investment advice, nor do I hold any accountantability for them.
GBG Price at posting:
27.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held