sellers???, page-11

re: sellers/kg/future sp? Probably getting a bit ahead of ourselves here KG re future sp's!

BUT I'll have a go.

Lets just say,we now have a qualified mining engineer on board.We have the major off-take customer signed up(which guarantees first 5 years revenue and hence loan payback,eia is done and nearly dusted,just need final approval.We know what the final requirement is but are just unsure how Gip will go about it.Scenarios have been expressed re this aspect before and anything posted will only be conjecture anyway,but factors are moving in Gip's favour.I hope they are its why I bought a swag more of Gip/gipo.

I'll go at what I consider is a conservative scenario re the sp.Just how the options gap is maintained is a question I'm not overly up with.You may be able to help on this.Does it simply maintain the constant 6/7c gap it has previously or is it related to the dilution factor in regards to the overall number of ords/opps on issue if the options are exercised?

Anyway back to where I think the ords price will head.

Finance attained:15/20c-You may see some pretty active capping if/when this ann as insto/s will want in.

Once higher risk portfolio insto/s are in they will let it run.

Insto's in:30/50c-this price should be maintained up until production dependant on other insto's getting on board and just whether or not the market sees Gip as the new Australian/Egyptian tantalum producer to take over from you know who.If it all happens its a great story for the mining industry to take up.

Successful production:50c+

One other main factor will be the equity issue.I think we can assume it will be around 20c plus or thereabouts.This will without doubt be the biggest factor in the movement of the sp as we are looking at between 50/100M shares to be issued.I'm assuming somewhere closer to the top of this range as Gip will need more cash for Wadi Allaqi.Thats unless they float the gold assets to keep it separate from the tantalum project.Has been mentioned before and would be a distinct possibility knowing where the Au price is currently heading.

Obviously the higher the better for the sp re the equity issue for Abu D but then as I mentioned in a previous post your broker/instos will want some cheaper action re the issue.If the brokers have already been buying up Gip in the expecatation of an issue/placement then this factor may be mitigated and Gip may well be able to simply issue at what they think is realistic given the finance situation.This assumes the majority of the cash would be coming from a UK finance org as we still have not seen any major buying on the asx,just some apparent transfer of stock via the Pattersons/Ambrian alliance.

Thats my basic scenario which pretty much follows such higher risk companies such as AVM and appears to follow the price structure/project development of most specs.Much of this is usually dependant on insto involvement but just how the Aim market effects this sp development is anyones guess.One would think Philip Richards(RAB) will be doing his darndest to make his bit out of the situation though.

This does not include any success at Wadi Allaqi or any success re the feldspar offtake,so there is definitely room for movement.

Many other variables can and probably will effect the sp over the next year and a half or so but imo I'll be extremely surprised if the options price isnt well into the money by Dec 2007.This should be nearly a year post production start-up which is supposed to now be end of 2006.

d.