I think that the "short-term" surprises could actually be to the downside.
US earnings season begins and Alcoa has already registered a greater loss than expected. A lot of analysts in the US have priced in a rebound in growth in the 2nd half of 2009, while the reality looks like that may be overly optimistic and further downgrades may be in order.
Citigroup also looks like it may need another bailout (I don't think further bailouts to the banks have been priced into the mkt. but we'll see) as will the automakers soon (the magnitude of which is presently unknown), so probably a bit more pain to come.
