We won't know for a while to what extent the new competition will erode Axiron market share/margins and how fast. Clearly given the fall in the share price the market thinks it will be rapid but I am not so sure. I know the competitors will move much faster than the glacial pace at which ACR can move, but (at least to some extent) the future of Axiron will be determined by how much Lilly is prepared to promote the product.
Despite likely short term moves lower I believe that this share has the potential to trade higher.
Another factor is we are taking past failures to develop new products as an indicator of future failures. Just maybe this shock will be enough to get them moving on their pipeline. Just maybe at some stage they might decide they need new leadership. All unlikely, but maybe.
Personally I am waiting for the dust to settle.
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