Juju,
The word "success" has very broad meaning in the commercial sense. The share price will respond primarily to the quantum of the well test technical data. So the chance of commercial success remains as 1 in 4.
If FAR reap this chance of success then the next aspect will be the size of the commercial field columns of hydrocarbons (preferably oil) and the anticipated flow rates of those hydrocarbons following well testing.
The field may be successful in the 1 out of 4 sense but may only prove up reserves of 60% of what was anticipated - still commercially viable, just not as good as proving up the 100% reserves.
Hope this makes sense.
Cheers
BF
senegal.. from cairn half -yearly presentation, page-9
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