senegal scenarios

Hey folks,

Just looking for some insight into what to expect in the coming months depending on different outcomes in Senegal. I'm a longterm holder and have been accumulating for a couple of years. It's definitely risky but obviously lots of upside potential so worth a punt in my eyesl. I haven't got a great deal of experience in small caps nor O&G exploration so now we're nearing crunch time I thought I'd put some questions to the floor..

1) Big success. The most unlikely scenario but what we're all hoping for.. Either drill hits an elephant and encounters a huge amount of oil. Far becomes a takeover target. Sells for 20-40 cents? (Figures being thrown around) Would this happen on the strength of one wildcat drill? Or would more appraisal wells be necessary to confirm commercial viability?

2) Somewhat successful. More likely than the above but seemingly fraught with difficulties and complications moving forward. Lets say we make a non-commercial discovery, as we've seen with Pcl at Mbawa and more recently Sunbird. If the results are not so encouraging the senior partner can walk (Eg. Anadarko-Mbawa) leaving us with little possibility of furthering the block. If cairn/conoco want to keep exploring we're going to have to come up with 15% of costs, so approx 15million per drill. We're sitting on 27 million and last quarter spent 6 million on standard operations. That means another year or so of standard operations... Chipping in for drills will surely mean a big CR. Up to 25% of MCap according to a recent announcement. That would raise potentially 25-30 million on current prices, possibly funding 2 drills? Or could we see a further farm down for more free carry? It's a minefield!

3) Two completely dry wells. Likely outcome which we're all dreading. What are the odds of our two JV partners wanting to further explore the blocks? You'd think we're drilling the most likely plays so if this happens its surely more likely than not a write-off?
That would leave us with Kenya. Hmmm. After two years of promise I'm not holding my breath there.

Fingers crossed for the elephant!!! Comments welcome and thanks to the regular posters who keep us all informed and interested!! Cheers!