senior appointment adds stature, page-4

If you were Santos, and you were about to selldown more equity in GLNG, about to secure extra offtakes for GLNG, and you wanted to make a hostile move on ESG, would you:

(A) Announce the Kogas deal FIRST, pushing up your own share price, but also pushing up the price of ESG's scrip?, OR

(b) Announce a bid for ESG at the same time as you announce the big equity/offtake deal with Kogas?

IMO, the second approach makes more sense. The second approach doesn't give the market warning of an impending move on ESG. And the second approach means that Santos' own share price will hold up better - 'here is our proposed acquisition (ESG), and here is how we can monetise that purchase straight away via the Koreans...'. It is Santos as a 'net seller of gas' idea. Attempt to get ESG at the same time that you are selling gas equity at the other end.

Gas in (ESG) - Gas out (Kogas). Profit in between.

So, I expect that Santos will not give you fair warning of a bid on ESG by announcing the Kogas deal first. IMO, ESG shareholders will have to buy ahead of Santos' Kogas deal if you wish to benefit from the first Santos' hostile bid. And with all approvals in for GLNG, it is anyone's guess how soon that could be...

Yaq