There is no substitute for having some idea of what the debt to ebitda ratio is. It doesn't get reported often so even using approximations based on common ratios is better than nothing. Can you give us some idea of what the range of those covenants might be? Use a commodity business with low margins on the low end, and use a proprietary product business with barriers to entry and high margin on the other end. Give us a sense for the range of covenant ratios.
I am not looking for a default risk indicator. In RFG's case, I do believe there is little chance of defaulting on an interest payment, and I do believe the business will stabilize within two years and emerge as a strong growing company. The issue is entirely around this debt to ebitda ratio, because in a declining ebitda environment it is going to trigger a series of capital raises that could potentially send the shares to 50 cents or lower. Altman Z Score is never going to give you a hint of that. When I first looked at the company I had no clue about this covenant, and I had no idea that the 2018 EBITDA guidance already put them right on the hair trigger of violating that covenant. I would never have made the investment had that covenant been clear to me.
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Mkt cap ! $171.8M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
6.8¢ | 7.0¢ | 6.7¢ | $397.9K | 5.845M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 208459 | 6.9¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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7.0¢ | 668943 | 8 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 208459 | 0.069 |
2 | 349376 | 0.068 |
3 | 139775 | 0.067 |
6 | 477990 | 0.066 |
7 | 186965 | 0.065 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.070 | 668943 | 8 |
0.071 | 114155 | 3 |
0.072 | 13900 | 1 |
0.073 | 223173 | 4 |
0.074 | 222400 | 5 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 02/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
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