Sentiment Change

A nice finish today at 36 cents which marks exactly an 80% gain from the 20 cent low. Is this finally a new uptrend? The increased volume and technical signals the traders are getting certainly suggest so.

Despite great fundamental improvements in the last 18 months we still have a long long way to go and Wayne and his team still have a lot of targets to hit and nay sayers to prove wrong. It’s far from proven right or over.

However, 80% in 5 months is not to be sniffed at.

So what was sentiment on the AHZ HC forum like when we drifted into the low 20’s. Surprisingly not as bad as I remembered but still generally very downbeat. In fact I remember feeling a little despondent about the mood in HC so I did not write much during that time. I felt like every time I had a read I would have to go in and bat for the company and it was draining. Someone then accused me of going into hiding and all.

Instead, I looked at HC a little less and tried to find any spare cash I had to keep buying.

However, during that momentous period of opportunity it was not easy to continue to buy against a back drop of negative comments and “noise” on HC. However, I am sure that some of these comments may have unduly influenced some holders to sadly sell at the bottom and thus enhancing the opportunity for others.

So what can we learn from this exercise:

* The SP does not always reflect the underlying value of the company. Sometimes a company can be way over priced with hype ($1.80) and way underpriced on fear (20 cents). Sentiment and market psychology play a huge part. But the fundamentals are always there to judge independently of share price.

* We are not out of the woods yet. This next 4C soon to be released may disappoint, especially if we move much higher in SP before then. So will you buy, sell or hold on a pullback?

I have only ever put one or two posters on ignore for no more than my sanity so maybe I missed some of the worst posts. But below are a sample of posts from around the time we hit rock bottom in the SP. It can be a good lesson to go back and feel the temperature of the market at its peak of pessimism. Perhaps for those that sold or struggled to add it may help when an “opportunity” presents itself again.

As with all stocks that go down you have to have a solid belief in its underlying value if you want to change the fortitude to hold or add during sell offs. As an example Nanosonics may be another classic case in point right now as the shorts temporarily prevail.

So here is a flashback to some of the AHZ posts at the very bottom on the eve of an 80% rally (which may just be the beginning):

* well wayne should get his sh..t to geather this could be his best flop ever .but he doesnt need this job really hes just playing with our money.how low can you go


* 20 CENTS. This a farken joke Wayne. Ra to you. Ill be eating noodles for tea and im payen you to eat sushi and smoke cubans, go figure.


* People that are employed by the company they work for are obviously going to give positive statements even if the company is performing poorly.


* this sp is a disgrace 20 cent consolidation = 2 cents = 2 Cent Wayne.


* is this the new reality 20 cents? when does wp believe will hit 2 dollars. he seem pretty convinced in earlier presentations that will happen. think needs to be clarity on reality and bluesky. At moment i dont see any bluesky in my platform delayed train carrige, heard alot of shouting by some noisy cheerleader pssengers that will be great train ride. need aircon on air getting hot.


* Well if you think the downtrend will continue then there is no reason to buy at all and everyone should wait on the sidelines until Wayne Paterson can prove himself before they can pat each others back.


* Who would have thought we see 20c when Lee Rodne was doing placement @66c. But you get bombarded by Wayne fanatics if you question about his performance.


* Not much interest Speculation has seemed to have gone Other sectors having good runs


* If they don't come up with something deemed positive by the market at the agm, then this will continue to decline. What a $h!t stock.


* revenue and small profits dont matter its the blue sky and the story that get the high market caps, its a fact. look where AHZ went on hype, and now its another year til break even nobody gives a crap. they just move to the next story to see if that one will come true and make them rich.


* The blue sky has left AHZ No real vax stuff and certainly no money to progress it The blue sky was in the early days of this novel ( as I've often alluded too )That's the trick about the spec markets - find something with some excitement- hop on but make sure you exit before it becomes real. And so many come out of the Wild West
AHZ is just now nuts and bolts .
I am really unable to see how they will get the scale in the market they need .
I was always in favour of licensing and collecting royalties from a major Med company that could do Cardicel justice .
To have a dedicated sales team never made sense to me. There is much water to flow under the bridge before TAVR is a goer - trials etc.
The market is full of lessons- some hurt but they do make one stronger .


* Sentiment has been smashed on this stock, regardless of promises from emails which, let's face it, don't count. Support of this stock will rely on 1.) Fruition of blue sky with TAVR from partnership deal to further development 2.) CF+ and/or 3.) Getting rid of the vax for a chunk of change commensurate with our original investment. Company may very well be CF+ at years end 2018 but that's a long way away. SP will drift lower in the meantime if none of the above happen.


* Oh man from $1.10 pre consolidation couple years back to .10 cents on the horizon. WP - something is seriously not right no matter how you spin this.

It’s always darkest before the dawn.

DYOR and Not advice.