Hi Moonshine, While that is all fine and dandy, what are your...

Hi Moonshine,

While that is all fine and dandy, what are your thoughts about a potential US recession? It feels like we are in the late stages of this business cycle. Not to mention that PRRT risk still exists to the downside. Greens and LNP are playing hardball from opposite sides of the coin. Perhaps Labor has to make additional unfavourable changes to the PRRT to get the Greens onboard, like they did for their housing policy?

I think things you have not factored in your bull case is the extremely low US crude stockpiles (so low that the salt caverns that hold the oil are at risk of collapsing in on themselves), lack of luck for the Northern Hemisphere (hotter summers and colder winters), OPEC+ target quote reductions, Canadian oil sands curtailment due to bushfires, Northern Iraqi oilfields curtailment due to diplomatic spat with Turkey.

Would like to hear your input.