sentiment since the agm., page-9

1) Ching production has fallen steeply raising questions about further costs and WPL's competence

"these things happen and wpl is on the case to sort it out asap cant do any more"

2) There has been a referal of WPL to the federal police concerning its dealings with Mauritania

"load of rubbish by some politician who doesnt know what she is talking about, wpl fully disclosed the payment so absolutely nothing like the AWB affair and will blowover"

3) The markets have suffered a correction which means that even good news is overlooked and bad news is punished even more. And there is as usual under these conditions a flight to safety and companies with cash flow .. and HDR's is falling!

"yep markets are correcting, hdr is also being played a little by hedge funds and instos, you can either trade with them or get suckered in by there plays and make them wealthy, all depends on your personal time frame"

4) The end of the finacial year approaching is compounding the woes as tax loss selling of HDR adds to the general market selloff

"always a bit of rebalanceing but more a market correction at the moment so cant see tax loss having a great impact compared to correction"

5) HDR did a significant placement in the UK when the market (me at least) thought there was no need because they were well funded by Ching cash flow ..... and within days the Ching problems emerged!!! Not good for sentiment and confidence in management's openness

"cant complain about the capital raising now, management got it away at a good price for existing shareholders"

6) Tiof concept has firmed but its at a higher than anticipated capex and tapping smaller than anticipated reserves initially and will produce first oil somewhat later than expected .. both of which lower some analysts valuations

"this info has been known for a while and instos not factoring tiof in until 2009 so no short term affect, having said that if they do declare it commercial then the risk weight will change and will be positive"

7) Presentations started saying Guyane drill would be 2007 .. oh yeah but we have a farmout coming (yeah right) .. when the market was anticipating a drill by the end of June .. this year!

"guyane is a long way away and not been factored into this price so no reason for it to go down on this, farmout will only be a small positive in the short term"

8) Rather than applying the placement moneys to fixing production problems and fast-tracking projects like Guyane (drilling it alone at higher equity), and or buying producing assets ... we get more new ventures (Suriname, Trinidad) and are promised 2 more!!

"to buy producing assets, cost would be outrageous and with a premium, as stated by SP the surinam play is a high probability of success, fast to develop and obvious relationship building in the surinam/guyane area for the medium term, an excellent play"

9) Do I need to go on ..................???


If we don't get some serious promotion of the significance of Uganda to HDR by SP and the new ventures are not announced "shortly" I'm filing for divorce!! LOL

"uganda is significant and all the announcements have been positive but takes time to prove up to commercial status, especially when you have to dismantle your rig to move around the country on the back of a truck"

Anyone want to add to this list or disagree?

Add to the list
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"SP has embarked on a move away from mauritania in the short term and presented an excellent plan with which most people who went to agm liked and posted positive and nothing has changed, ie short term is now uganda and surinam, mauritania at wpl pace but still progressing and not under hdr control, guyane is medium term play, falklands is long term play or exit."

"under $2 is a good price to buy hdr, yeah there is heaps of potential in the long term but brokers always focus on short term."

"anyone who sells under $2 and bought over $2 should seriously think about what they are doing if they intend to buy again when it gets to $2.30 again, cos if you keep buying high and selling low you will go broke."

"hdr is an excellent medium/long term play with little downside at current prices, or even under $2"