Sep22 quarter predictions, page-73

G'day Coto, here is an alternative view.

US interest rates are likely to continue higher into the middle of calendar 2023 and knowing the Fed and its history may overshoot and leave interest rates too high trying to kill off inflation. To some extent inflation in the US is already ameliorating as a high USD is leading to lower import unit costs. Another forward indicator of US inflation (The Lumber Index) has fallen from about $1,440 to $435 in about 6 months and impacts construction costs.

Mid term elections - who knows how that impacts interest rates.

It will take months to gather 300,000 military reservists into the Soviet army. Many of these are conscripts and prisoners. The training effort to get these reservists up to scratch will take at least 3-4 months and the trainers will need to be recalled from the front line to do the training. So as winter hits Europe and training bogs down like the Soviet tanks in the Ukrainian mud the chances of Soviet victories is almost nil.

Both China and India are walking back from full support of Putin and his crazy invasion of Ukraine. And all the while Ukraine is getting more weapons and more sophiscated weapons from the west. And do not discount the weapons, ammunition and rolling stock abandoned by the Russians in their latest retreat. The Ukraine will put all that to very good use.

I think gold will drift lower unless a nuke is fired. And if Vlad fires a nuke the Soviet Union is finished. It's like firing your last bullet and having no plan A, no plan B, no plan C or in plain Aussie speak NFI.

Cheers......D