Using Po's June 2010 cashflow (with Po's forecast Sept expenditure) along with Po's 6 month June P&L and BS I have done the following back of the envelope calculations
ALL AMOUNTS ARE EURO and my estimates only so please do your own calculations.
September 2010 Cashflow and comments
Revenue: 2,567K (90,000m3 * 92days * 0.31(price))
Less Admin; (654K)same as June quarter
Production costs (600K) Po's estimate from last qtrly
Interest (120K)
VAT (513k) Po does not show Vat payments in cashflow and includes as a receivable in Balance Sheet.
Development (600K) Po's estimate from last qrtly
Exploration (100K) Po's estimate from last qrtly
EQUALS a NETT DECREASE IN CASH of 20K EURO
CASH AT BANK JUNE 2010 2480K
Estimate Sept 2010 2,480K
Then Balance Sheet issue:
Current Receivables from June Accounts were 2,353K but most was Vat which is a cash off-set (payroll). THE TRUE RECEIVABLE FROM THIRD PARTIES (other than Vat) was only 231K and Po's Current June Payables were 3,267K.
THUS NET SHORT TERM deficiency is (3,036K)
ADD Debt 7,000K
Thus Total Debt plus S/T Payable = 10,036K
Less Est Sept cash of 2,460
S/T Payable if Debt Due = 7,576
EQUALS 25%+ of current market cap.
This in my view is why stock has tanked.
Po needs to now inform us Debt is not repayable in the short term.
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