When I predicted the numbers earlier for the Sept quarterly it wasn't just from pulling hopeful numbers out of the air without any realistic assessment and calculation. But actually using a spreadsheet which I sometimes use for companies at times to help forecast results. This instance, forecast was based mainly around an expected drop in marketing and advertising and history of quarterly results for past three years..
The only reason I stated .9m loss and not 1.5 - 1.6m is due to lack of activity last few months since they have cut back marketing and advertising as much as possible. Which isn't surprising giving the terrible results anyway previous quarters when they had increased marketing.
Since QFX seem to be holding back the quarterly to the very last possible minute here is my prediction of all the numbers which will be reported in Sept and includes of course the 4 categories Paying Customers,Churn,Revenue,loss and Cash on Hand posted earlier.
cash on hand less cost for CRs and SPP since cost has not already been reported as included or not in cash raised so I used expected average of 500k. If amount raised does include cost, then expect cash on hand to be 4.9m
Wombat,
Off topic but as per your earlier comment, "Kat, they also have Qantas down with a 49% probability of bankruptcy in the same time frame. That just threw their credibility out the window"
Quite on the contrary actually.
Without government interdiction via means of cash loan or removing the restriction of foreign airline investment I would only give QAN a 50/50 chance of surviving so the 49% probability is in my view quite plausible. Also I've been trading airlines for 20 years. Airlines run on high costs and profit thin margins, unless they are bankrolled by wealthy states (Emirates,Qatar Airlines for example) I'd give pretty much all of them just a 50/50 chance of surviving long term for reasons everyone is aware of common to all airlines.
Also on MacroAxis, I've actually subscribed to this to test it further as I've being spending a few days looking into it in more detail, also been discussing it's merits pros/cons from a few who subscribe to the service within another group I communicate with. So far it seems to be a very good portfolio investment management service, which includes a lot of interesting company analysis tools based on formulas/algorithms. Also has some excellent portfolio reporting and management tools.
Anyway don't write it off too quickly just because it predicts QFX to have an almost 100% chance of bankruptcy, suggest trying out the free trial for yourself. Also great that it covers every market in the world.
