september 2012 operational update , page-10

Encouraging to see the sp hold up yesterday after the monthly update simply heightened the tension.

I personally don't think TG and others would be buying in or adding at around 60c unless they had near complete confidence in Fiesta. I know their share purchases are intended to support the share price, but equally TG has basically converted his salary since joining the co. into shares at 60c and he's done that precisely when all our chips are riding on Fiesta results

I'm not sure at what stage we should expect to see oil flows but with only 18% of fracc fluid recovered it is logical that we need to see more of theses fluids recovered before oil can start migrating into the fractures. If my figures are right we have recovered about 35,000 bbl of frac fluid out of approx 175,000 injected.

And as they are stating- 1300 bbl/d is a good rate of fluid recovery and indicated the fraccs have done their job in cracking open the bench. I'd guess TG and Co know quite a bit more than us about how far the fraccs are thought to have migrated .

Finally I wouldn't expect the company to make the following assertion unless they had a strong conviction that the well will start to flow oil quite soon.

"On 30 September 2012 (North America), the well showed oil staining, which combined with the high daily fluid volumes, is very encouraging and indicates effective fraccing and system permeability."

As for the end of calender year flow rates, I can't see them getting to 2500 bbl/d. I think I heard TG acknowledge that the production rate was about a month or two behind where they hoped it would be in a recent webcast. Here i think the orginal plan was to get about 500 bbl out of Canada, and now they appear to have more or less written off that play in favour of Texas.