I like your thinking but you have two vital points missing.
1/ it's irrelevant what the previous SP was and what could be simply because of all the dilution occurring since
2/ funds hardly get involved at this level and likely not for a long time. A few specialists ones maybe. We are not in the major indexes. Most super funds couldn't even buy until asx 200. We have a way off before mainstream funds will take note. Even then they are not interested at this level. Copper is a component that won't be replaced. So that's a interest. Motors will be an interest. Etc. but their view is lithium could be replaced at some point. Not necessarily agreeing on that point with them and change occurring in near term but that is what has been said by everyone of them I've spoken too. And that's quite a few. Their risk sentiment is far more conservative than maybe many us us here.
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I like your thinking but you have two vital points missing. 1/...
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