Fair enough on the sarcasm. My point is the outcome is unknowable. But out of the millions of companies that try to become the next Linkedin, Google, Facebook etc very very few do i.e. the baseline probability on 1PG and most concept stocks is massively stacked against you. There are some many concept stocks that were going to change the world and now we can't even remember their names.
None of that means 1PG will fail, but it is a low probability bet IMO, particularly given there is no way to work out what the downside valuation is and it currently earns absolutely nothing.
I think you can definitely trade this sort of stock by trading the trend and being long momentum, but it is impossible to know when the momentum will stop and what the medium term value of this is (at least with say BAL AU (another darling stock) it generates cash, has a proven monetisation model, has a reasonable growth driver which is understandable etc (although it looks expensive at current levels) so you can try to come up with a downside valuation and some sort of medium term valuation).
As mentioned, to me 1PG is the classic concept stock, that has highly promotional management who have promised the world, will need to raise capital over and over again (not super short term though), that is very well held by short term traders, is not being smashed by short sellers (short interest is 1.6%) has recently rolled over and traders are heading for the exits.
BTW - I did not think anyone owned any threads?? Surely the bulls should welcome healthy debate about their stocks (and the bears of course) (not personal attacks, but debating the facts). But I do agree the bears usually only come out when a stock is rolling over (obviously me included) and that losing money is painful (I certainly know that feeling).
Personally I think there are a lot of different types of shorts/sells out there eg frauds, cyclical slowdowns, structurally challenged businesses, gross overvalue etc, but the one common thing you want between all of them is that the stock has rolled over and broken down from a trend perspective, hence the reason why more people are probably looking at 1PG as a short/sell right now.
Clearly I could be wrong and if the facts change, I have no issue changing my view.
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