seriously undervalued., page-62

investor450 that could be my bad as far as saying stockpiling, my wires are crossed with another stock I hold (UNI) who are stockpiling their product atm. Though the thought could still be there due to the news that Dr Reddy's will start selling immediately upon approval, though that could just be orders taken as they are not licensed as yet to manufacture. A little while ago I post some points that came from a Bioshares Report and they gave an insight as to what could be expected from sales, paste of post below:



I see a new report out by Bioshares on ACL recently, I'll paste some main points below as it is a subscription based thing, and yes that was me just after open grabbing 15k more to round up my holdings:)

1. They say approval is expected by years end and could be as early as 13th September.

2. The FDA may have further questions that need to be answered by Dr Reddy's.

3. Reddy's will start to sell immediately. Reddy's have already contacted the 10 major hospital purchasing groups and major retail pharmacy chains.

4. Purchasers are likely to stock the generic to have two different suppliers in case one can't supply for any reason.

5. They expect the take up of fondaparinux to be rapid.

6. Expect ACL to receive a profit share of $33m a year. Assuming 40% market share and 20% discount to Arixtra.

7. Market share could be higher and discount could be as low as 10%.

8. With the current growth of Arixtra, ACL's profit share could reach $38m next year based on the (40% share 20% discount) if the growth of Arixtra continues.

9. It talks of whether there could be a switch from Lovenox to our generic. Due to Lovenox being cheaper they see only modest switching from the oral 30mg dose (twice a day) to Fondaparinux once a day injection.

All in all the figures look great to me and have left some good room for improvement. IMO the Lovenox share will have to be fought by the person prescibing and their personal thoughts on what is safer and what works better if we were to directly take share from them without Arixtra as a first thought.

But then there's Europe to think about:)))


Gluck all................