Having recently gone through a takeover (at UMC), I have seen...

Having recently gone through a takeover (at UMC), I have seen share prices cooked to allow a takeover premium from the volume weighted average price in the period leading up to the announcement.

There is every possibility that EXT fate will be decided by the current largest stakeholders sitting around a boardroom table, and hammering out the agreed value that Kalahari's stake will be sold to Rio for.

Rio has shown they are quite comfortable with JV majority, rather than outright ownership.

Under this scenario, Rio agrees on a price, and then the share price is sold down to a level which makes the transaction look like a good premium for Kalahari.

I hope I am wrong, but there is little doubt that the current price is being played down (helped by the market, no doubt).

Either the big boys are gunning for the remaining 10% smaller shareholding stocks, or there is another play at work.

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Related topic:
I did a quick calculation of company value, based on announced targets plus the current resource, and some assumptions (which are obviously open to dispute and correction).

Current resource = 292m lbs
Additional target range is between 185m and 285m lbs.

This gives an announced range of between 477m lbs and 577m lbs

If I use $6USD per pound (and .93 cents conversion of AUD - USD), this delivers an enterprise value of between $3.077billion and $3.722billion.

Divide this value by 237.3 million shares on offer, and I get a share value of between $12.96, and $15.68

I will be interested to see what the takeover price announcement is (whenever it happens).
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Related topic #2
Has anyone spoken to Rance Dorrington about his reasons for resigning - I would be interested to know.

DYOR