PNA won't be surging back to $1 anytime soon, because:
1. PNA has DEBT (debt being another bad 4 letter word)
2. Copper prices are not strong & are trending down
3. We still don't know the actual cash costs, nor have a handle on overhead/admin costs
4. PNA is still a 1 trick pony at present, one mine companies don't tend to trade on rich P/E's.
5. Current forecast EPS FY09 maybe around 10, but $1 a share suggests a P/E of 10 (& market cap close to $1.5b), that would require NPAT of around $A150m, possible i guess but hardly going to be rewarded in this bear market.
PNA may have an instrinic value of about a $1, but fair value at present is probably closer to 40 - 50c, on the basis that the $US doesn't devalue the $A any further, & Copper prices stay above $US2.20/lb.
If PNA retains cash costs below say $US1.10 - 1.20/lb & Copper prices stay above $US3/lb, then in the 2nd half of 2009 we could see PNA trading closer to fair value.
PNA Price at posting:
25.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
