PB
That is why we need you here.
If you feel that some are critical of your analysis is no reason not to post.
It helps when you get old like me and don't care whether you sometimes make a fool of yourself.
Just be brave and post what you see and whether you are 95% right or 95% wrong it doesn't matter.
So far you seem to be 100% right, but don't be worried about a failure or criticism.
A prognostication causes others here to look at their own thoughts and reevaluate. My best results have often come from the initial thoughts of others that caused me to relook at my presumptions.
Of course it you wish to elaborate on your reasons it is even better and teaches even old dogs some new tricks.
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