setember rolls on , page-8

by50 I once used your posts as a contrarian indicator with some success. Remember this thread -
Those were the days lol?

http://hotcopper.com.au/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=848100&msgno=3823016#3823016


The funny thing is this time I almost agree with you and I can't be my own contrarian indicator, so back to plan A, which called for a 4000 point rally, and still 1000 or so to go. Its not entirely plucked - I think the DJIA needs to break the psychologically important 10,000 point barrier to convince everyone the troubles are over and throw everything back in the market. I also think any secondary symptoms of financial crisis are still some time away and the smart money will need some more time after that to distribute.

Another alternative is a long period of more or less sideways action, sector rotation that sort of thing. The Dow was flat for periods of more than two years near the two most recent tops (though SPX less so). I suspect if it is going to carve out a very large head and shoulders its going to take a long time to complete the top.