I do agree in that the Haywood report is the "overture"... However i do hope and believe that the "transition" to a new stage of market capitalisation, recognition AND shareholder base AND company stage will be orchestraed by Anvil a little bit more in a "symphony style" and this means it have to last a little longer and will be more complex and should also have the right dramaturgy...
So what do I like to see and what i am hoping for in the coming weeks (Sept-November):
1) additional coverage by cannadian institutions like Nesbitt, National or Cannacrap /ongoing?
2) Ann. of deep underground drilling and new mine plan findings and decision for an accelerated Dikulishi Stage 3 development (start by mid 2006?) and according new resource/reserves estimates /mid October?
3) Ann. Heads of agreement with Gecamines re new project (but NO capital increase ann. yet!!!) /next 4 weeks?
4) Ann. of results regional exploration (Lufukwe and Kapulo, may be also of the other often mentioned but so far unnamed other near Dik. priority target /Kapulo next 4 weeks?, Lufukwe end of Ocober?
5) Decision on a feasibility/BFS of one or two of the deposits in 4)/end of Oct?
Remark: the most extraordinary IMHO of Haywood`s report was the indication of Lufukwe`s potential, this is SIGNIFICANT and looks probable economical valid taking the amount of copper involved and the silver grade into consideration which is well above the treshold to get silver credits paied for from the smelters. On a rough calculation Lufukwe alone could add 40.000 !! annual copper output on a life of mine > 10 years!
6) Decision to run also the second ball mill in order to work up more rapidly stockpiles of tails and floats and low grade /next 4 weeks?
7) Announcement of MIBA risk insurence for Dik Stage II (see below) /timing depending on world bank board descion
8) 3Q results, hopefully not that bad with indications of the performance of Stage 2 after ramping up and achieved efficiencies coz of new mining fleet under direct controll/ end of October
9) roadshows in Australia and Canada with in depth promoting of the new projects, specially the rumoured Gecamines deal /November?
10) Positioning of insitutional and long term holders, bailing out of momo small pocket players, dumb dumpers (CBA) and other weak hands/ongoing
11) Finalizing debt and equity financing under hopefully "good terms" which should be much more achievable IF And after 1-9 materialize in contrast to rush into a capital increase already now. May be not all of 1-9 will turn out as hoped for but there is a a very good chance that at least some will which should well support the stock price and institutional interest. Also i do believe the money raising capital markets for mining companies will be more favrourable in November. /november?
I could haved added other goodies that are potentially in the pipeline too, but i added only those with a high degree of positive outcome within a relatively short period of time.
Surely "low cost" means cash cost of production and such is often referred to being around/below 0,40 $/lb. In a recent deal with Gecamines Metorex claims cash costs will become negative after their Stage 2 because of valueable cobalt credits...
PS1 @ Flatts: re elephant country. Recently i came accross a good expression re the mineral richness of the DRC, it was called a "geological scandal".
PS" @ Tas: risk is relative, imagine you can have an IRR of > 50% in a very risky country, this may be less risky than a project with an IRR of 8-10% in a country which is considered "safe", but where one can still face regulatory and other risks and has VERY long amortization lead times, ask Inco about their Voisey bay experience for example...
MIGA, the political risk insurance arm of the World Bank, is considering a guarantee for a Stage II expansion of the Dikulushi copper-silver mine. The project sponsor is Anvil Mining (Australia), in which First Quantum Minerals (Canada) owns a 17.5 % interest. First Quantum was also cited for OECD guidelines violations in the October 2002 UN Panel report (but the issues were considered to be “resolved” in the final December 2003 UN Panel report). The project is located 400 km northeast of Lubumbashi in Katanga. Construction of the mine began in February 2002 and production began in September 2002 (Stage I). The international NGO World Vision will likely implement a community development program in conjunction with the project. Civil society groups have met with MIGA representatives raising a number of concerns about the project regarding labor, governance, development benefits, and security issues. A letter was sent to the World Bank’s Board of Directors in August in advance of the Board discussion on Dikulushi.
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