SFR General Discussion, page-79

From Livewire, published an hour ago, JFYI:

Should OZ eventually fall to BHP – it would take a bid around the $30 a share mark – the title of Australia’s biggest copper producer outside of the majors on the ASX would pass to Sandfire (SFR). Absent a takeover bid like the one for OZ, Sandfire’s market value has been under the pump because of the 20% fall in the copper price from the June-half average. It last traded at $3.93 for a market cap of $1.61 billion, which is less than it paid to acquire the MATSA copper-zinc mining complex in southern Spain, with the transaction completed in February. MATSA, and the Motheo project in Botswana and the eventual development of Black Butte in the US, is now Sandfire’s future as its DeGrussa mine in Western Australia is about to give up its last high-grade copper/gold ore. MATSA and Motheo together are good for more than 132,000t of annual copper equivalent production come 2024 – a year chosen here because it is the year before BHP’s take-off year in copper demand. The short-term focus of the market on the inflation and possible recession impact on copper prices means that Sandfire’s current market value does not reflect its newly established, and bigger, production base in a commodity heading for take-off. That came through in five analysts’ reports issued after a recent tour of MATSA. Price targets on the stock ranged from a low of $5.25 a share (Jeffries) up to $6 a share (Citi). The implied upside on the current share price then was 33% to 52% (and it’s not a lithium stock).It is also worth noting that the share price targets were not based on any heroic price assumptions. Far from it, and certainly not reflecting the 2025 take-off scenario.

Full article: Today’s market wobbles fail to dent widely-held bullish outlook for copper - Barry FitzGerald | Livewire (livewiremarkets.com)