I will provide a real example of a doomed story rapidly turning around. Before I do, I will cop any criticism for this because I know no two situations are the same and for every positive example one could post a negative. Anyhow, here it is:
I liked the Webjet story and started purchasing at $3.80 around Oct 2013. That coincided with a few Brokers deciding to go negative on the stock but as per usual I listened and weighed up what they had to say. They thought margins would be squeezed and Webjet overseas venture would cripple the company. I liked management and considered they had a good knowledge of the industry.
Then Expedia bought WotIf. Brokers and shorters and press were now in full flight, Webjet cannot compete, it will go to the wall. Brokers slapped a $2 price on the stock. I objectively looked at the facts listened very carefully to what management were saying and continued to buy parcels as the share price declined (paid a great dividend by the way) . The stock hit is low point of $2.25 on 6 June 2104. At this point I had got my average down to $2.88.
Then the company confirmed its promise with a series of updates and stat reports. Shock horror it wasn't going bust, in fact it was making money and lots of it. I eventually sold out in Nov 2015 at $5.02 to fund more SGH.
A two year total return of approx. 75% (a loose calculation actually likely to be higher as purchases were staggered in time plus dividends on to of that). In Jun 2014 I was looking at a loss of 24%. Was I fool? Should I have sold it? Should I have tried to time it? If I was in and out all the time would I have been able to resist taking a profit at a much lower price?
View attachment 122552
